A quiet but important week: markets were digesting weak U.S. employment data and downward revisions, while traders looked ahead to central bank moves and inflation prints. USD was under pressure, and risk sentiment saw mild support from expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy.
1. Status of September 15 to 21st
A quiet but important week: markets were digesting weak U.S. employment data and downward revisions, while traders looked ahead to central bank moves and inflation prints. USD was under pressure, and risk sentiment saw mild support from expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy.
2. Sectioned Narrative
Instrument
Status (Sep 8-12)
US Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar weakened modestly. The August U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls came in at +22,000 vs forecast ~75,000. This large miss increased pressure on USD and raised rate-cut expectations. Also, U.S. job data revisions showed a large downward benchmark adjustment (-911,000) for March private payrolls.
EUR/USD
The euro held up reasonably well. With USD softness, EUR/USD found support, especially as market expectations leaned toward dovish Fed commentary. ECB comments that rates stay restrictive also helped the euro.
GBP/USD
The pound benefitted from USD weakness but lacked strong domestic drivers. Some pullback around resistance zones, mixed sentiment overall.
USD/CHF
Swiss franc gained some ground, benefiting from safe-haven demand amid USD weakness. There wasn’t major Swiss data to shake things up significantly.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Gold rallied, helped by the weak U.S. jobs number and rate-cut expectations. With the dollar under pressure, gold picked up upside momentum.
3. Data & Figures Integration
US Non-Farm Payrolls (August): +22,000 actual vs ~ +75,000 forecast.
Unemployment Rate: Held steady or modest increase to ~4.3%.
U.S. Benchmark Revisions: -911,000 for private payrolls for March 2025; also government payroll adjustments
Three-month moving average of U.S. nonfarm payroll growth: Fell to ~ 29,000 jobs per month.
4. Key Takeaways Table
Date
Key Event
Impact & Insight
Sep 5
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls: +22K vs ~75K forecast
Confirmed labor market is weakening; USD becomes vulnerable; fuels speculation of rate cuts.
Sep 5
Benchmark revisions: U.S. private payrolls down ~911K
Suggests earlier strength was over-estimated; increases probability of dovish Fed stance.
Sep 11
U.S. CPI / PPI expectations (Core PPI etc.) & ECB meeting watched closely
Markets were positioning ahead of inflation data & ECB tone.
5. Bottom Line
USD was under pressure this week after weak employment data and large downward revisions.
EUR and other currencies found relief, helped by USD softness and central bank signals.
Gold benefited as rate-cut expectations rose.
Forecast for the Upcoming Week (September 15 - 19, 2025)
Here’s how markets may move in the coming week, with levels and risks to watch:
Instrument
Key Levels / Scenario
Potential Drivers / Risks
DXY / USD
Support around 97.70; resistance near 98.60. A weekly close below 97.70 could target ~96.70-96.60. If it holds above, sideways range may persist.
U.S. inflation prints (CPI / PPI / Core) are due; possible Fed guidance at meeting(s); any surprises in labor market data or revisions.
EUR/USD
Key support ~ 1.1690-1.1715. If broken, downside toward ~1.1560-1.1580. On upside, resistance ~1.1780 and then ~1.1810-1.1820; breakout of that could test May highs.
Resistance near 1.3580; support around ~1.3540, then deeper near ~1.3480 if USD strength returns.
UK data (wages, employment, inflation), BoE’s stance; interplay with USD; risk flows.
USD/CHF
Likely to mirror USD moves. If USD weakens, CHF may gain; key support/resistance zones need monitoring (these levels less documented in recent reports).
Swiss domestic data, safe-haven flows, global risk sentiment.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Strong support near 3,500. Resistance zones around 3,700, followed by 3,800-4,000 psychological levels. Pullbacks likely to be bought if USD remains under pressure.
Rate expectations, inflation data, real yields, central bank actions, USD moves.
Actionable Notes for the Traders :
Keep stop-losses tight around key supports (e.g. EUR/USD near 1.1690) in case of a sharp USD recovery.
If you’re long EUR/USD or gold, entering on dips may offer better risk/reward.
Watch inflation data closely (CPI, PPI) and the Fed’s statements they will likely move markets more than minor data.
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