Market Overview

The foreign-exchange market enters the  Weekly Forex Forecast  of 17 November with a cautiously optimistic tenor, yet layered with considerable event risk and structural uncertainty. On one hand the U.S. dollar remains under pressure as markets increasingly price in further monetary easing, while the euro and sterling are modestly buoyed by relatively stable policy expectations. On the other hand growth and confidence indicators remain fragile in many major economies, meaning upside in risk currencies is constrained. With several major economic releases and central-bank minutes due this week, underlying volatility is likely to pick up.

In short: a neutral-to-slightly bullish bias for EUR and GBP versus USD, but with heightened risk of sudden reversals if surprises hit. Traders should prepare for range-bound trading with probes toward breakout levels rather than strong trending behaviour.

Previous Week Recap

In the week just ended, several key developments shaped FX sentiment:

• The U.S. labour market and inflation stories showed signs of softening, reinforcing expectations of a more dovish stance by the central bank.
• The dollar index (DXY) lost some ground, as one analysis noted that rallies stalled near the 100.25 level and sellers emerged around 99.30. 
• The euro-dollar pair (EUR/USD) had a modest rebound off lows in the 1.15-1.16 band, supported by the weaker dollar look. One forecaster noted EUR/USD support near 1.1700 with resistance at 1.2100 for the broader month.
• The British pound declined for a third consecutive week versus both USD and EUR, pressured by expectations that the Bank of England may cut rates in December. Sterling fell ~0.27% to USD 1.3105, set for a ~0.50% weekly drop.
• In broader markets, sentiment remained fragile. Business confidence indicators flagged one of the gloomiest readings since the pandemic era.

Overall the week offered a mild U.S.-dollar softening and a slight recovery attempt in EUR and other majors, but no clear breakout momentum. The stage is now set for next week’s higher-impact events.

Fundamental Outlook

Below is a table of major upcoming macro-economic releases, central-bank minutes and other relevant data that are likely to influence FX flows in the week of 17-21 November. Local times are those shown on global economic calendars (in GMT/UTC unless otherwise marked).

Key themes to watch

• The minutes of the U.S. central-bank meeting will be under heavy scrutiny. Markets currently expect that although a 25-basis-point cut has occurred, further reduction may not be imminent, contributing to USD softness.
• Flash PMI prints will test whether growth momentum is holding across advanced economies; weak results could challenge risk currencies, strong results could bolster them.
• Inflation prints in Canada and the UK will feed into expectations for their respective policy paths, thereby influencing CAD and GBP.
• Maintenance of stable monetary policy in Europe relative to more active moves in the U.S. might support EUR-USD via rate-differential channels.

Technical Analysis

Below is a snapshot of the present technical landscape for three major currency pairs. The analysis draws on recent technical commentary and chart observations.

*RSI and other indicators are approximately assessed from recent commentary rather than precise numerical values.

Technical commentary

• For EUR/USD: The pair remains in a consolidation phase beneath longer-term moving averages, with the range between roughly 1.1540 and 1.1800 defining near-term dynamics. A sustained break above 1.1800 would open room toward 1.2000. A break below 1.1540 could trigger further weakness toward ~1.1400.
• For GBP/USD: The pair recently reclaimed 1.3140, which now serves as a key support. If bulls hold that area, targets toward 1.3280-1.3320 may come into view. Failure below 1.3140 would signal risk of a reversal back toward 1.3000.
• For USD/JPY: The pair is held up at high levels around ¥160, with intervention risk by the Japanese authorities acting as a ceiling. Support at ~¥150 could attract buy interest for JPY if USD weakens further. 

Weekly Forecast 

Given the combination of fundamentals and technicals, here is the directional view and expected trading range for the major pairs:

• EUR/USD: Bias toward modest upside. Expect a trading range roughly between 1.1540 – 1.1800. If the euro carries further momentum and the dollar weakens, a break toward 1.1850-1.1900 is possible. On the flip side a disappointment in U.S. data or surprise hawkish talk could pull the pair toward 1.1450.
• GBP/USD: Slightly bullish but under caution. Trade range anticipated at 1.3100 – 1.3400. Upside potential remains toward 1.3300 if data supports sterling and dollar remains weak; however, risk of retracement toward 1.3000 is significant if sterling disappoints or dollar strengthens.
• USD/JPY: Bias toward dollar weakness / yen strength. Expected range roughly ¥150.00 – ¥158.00. A break below ¥150 could accelerate yen gains. However, intervention risk near the upper end (~¥160) keeps upside capped for USD.

In all cases traders should be alert to event-driven volatility. Unless major surprises occur, markets are likely to respect the well-defined ranges and trade in them, with occasional probes of breakout zones.

Key Levels Summary

Trading Notes

• Headline risk: The week features several high-impact events (FOMC minutes, flash PMIs, inflation prints) that could trigger sharp moves. Traders should adjust position sizing and be ready for volatility spikes.
• USD correlation: Many pairs are likely to remain correlated with the U.S. dollar index (DXY). A continued decline in the dollar tends to favor EUR and GBP upside, while a reversal in DXY could bite risk-currencies. Note that the dollar index has support near ~98.00 and resistance near ~100.00 in recent commentary.
• Carry and rate-differential dynamics: As U.S. policy is expected to remain on hold or edge toward easing, while other central banks (Europe, UK) are on hold or gradually easing, interest-rate differentials may shift in favour of non-USD currencies. This supports modest bullish biases for EUR and GBP.
• Range-trading over breakout-hunting: Given the defined support/resistance bands and the absence of a strong trending move, many pairs may trade within ranges rather than trending strongly this week. That suggests strategy should favour trading pullbacks within range rather than chasing breakouts unless accompanied by a clear catalyst.
• Risk management and liquidity: With major data releases and central-bank minutes, liquidity may thin and draws may amplify. Using tighter stop-losses, reducing size ahead of event windows, and being aware of overnight gaps is advisable.
• Sentiment monitoring: Business-sentiment metrics (such as flash PMIs) show weakening confidence. A poor reading could trigger safe-haven flows to USD/JPY and NZD/JPY. A better-than-expected reading might boost risk-currencies and EUR/GBP.

Final Checklist

Before trading the week ahead, consider the following actionable notes:

• Confirm the exact release times in your trading time-zone and mark them in your calendar.
• Pre-position risk: reduce exposure ahead of key releases (FOMC minutes, flash PMIs) and avoid large directional positions just before them.
• Set stop-losses and profit targets in line with the trading ranges noted: for EUR/USD 1.1540-1.1800, for GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3400, for USD/JPY ¥150.00-¥158.00.
• Monitor U.S. dollar strength (DXY) and yield spreads: a surprise pick-up in U.S. yields may re-strengthen USD and reverse current biases.
• Watch central-bank commentary and minutes closely: tone changes matter for medium-term bias beyond next week.
• Keep an eye on intervening market events (e.g. central-bank official speeches, geopolitical shocks) that could disrupt the expected range.
• Link your trade ideas to structure: either trading pullbacks to support or fade rallies toward resistance, unless a breakout is clearly confirmed by volume and momentum.
• Manage correlation risk: especially if you are trading multiple pairs, ensure exposures are not overly concentrated in USD-risk or carry-trade risk.
• Stay disciplined: if the market breaks out of the ranges we have defined, be ready to pivot quickly rather than fighting the trend.
• Maintain a journal of your trades and rationale: note whether your entry was based on fundamental cue, technical trigger or risk event. After the week ends, review what worked and what didn’t.